#	Question	My Pick	2×	Pts Available	Pts Earned
01	Predict the podium	Verstappen · Hamilton · Piastri	2×	88	28
02	Pole position	Kimi Antonelli	—	12	—
03	Highest qualifier (Norris vs Verstappen)	Max Verstappen	—	15	15
04	Will Haas get a car into Q3?	No	—	10	10
05	Fastest pitstop	Red Bull Racing	—	15	—
06	Safety Car or VSC in the first 10 laps?	No	—	15	15
07	Who finishes ahead (Gasly/Colapinto/Lawson/Lindblad)?	Pierre Gasly	—	10	—
08	Where does Isack Hadjar finish?	4th–10th	—	10	10
09	Fastest lap	Max Verstappen	—	15	—
10	Who leaves Austria 2nd in the Drivers’ Championship?	Lewis Hamilton	—	10	—
TOTAL				200	78

Final: 78 pts · 40% accuracy (4/10 clean hits: Q3, Q4, Q6, Q8).

Notes

Pre-race decisions:

• 2× on the podium (Q1) — placed on the only aggregate question for its EV edge (~17.5 vs the best binary ~8.7), accepting the variance.
• Deliberately excluded both Mercedes from the podium — Antonelli (5) and Russell (8) were graded the most likely podium-getters but their payouts were too low; the sheet backed Verstappen (14, Austria/fresh PU), Hamilton (12, form) and Piastri (18, payout).
• Red-Bull-at-Austria overlay — Verstappen carried four picks (Q1 podium, Q3 highest qualifier, Q5 fastest pitstop, Q9 fastest lap) on the home-circuit + fresh-PU thesis.

Result:

• The Red Bull thesis half-landed. Verstappen finished P2 — rescuing the doubled Q1 for 28 despite only 1 of our 3 named drivers reaching the rostrum — and out-qualified Norris (P5 vs P6) for a clean Q3 (+15). But the same thesis missed on the pitstop (Q5 went to Racing Bulls, not Red Bull) and the fastest lap (Q9 went to Antonelli, not Verstappen).
• The Mercedes exclusion was the sheet’s biggest cost. Russell won and Antonelli took P3 — the two podium slots we deliberately left off — and that same Mercedes strength cascaded into three more misses: Q2 pole (Russell, not Antonelli), Q9 fastest lap (Antonelli), and Q10 championship-2nd, which flipped when Russell’s win vaulted him past Hamilton (131 vs 125). The “Mercedes fade at Austria” premise never materialised; the battery fix held.
• The safe bands carried the floor. Q4 (Haas out of Q3), Q6 (no early SC/VSC), Q8 (Hadjar 4th–10th → P6) and Q3 combined for 50 of the 78 — the high-probability anchors did their job.
• Q7 blanked — Gasly was the EV favourite but finished P13; Lawson (P9) was actually highest of the four midfielders, so the higher-payout punt would have paid here.
• Verdict: a middling 78 on a low-conviction sheet, saved by the multiplier (28) and the four anchor bands. The lesson repeats a season theme — leaning fully off the most-probable Mercedes outcomes on payout grounds is high-variance and cost us four correlated questions when Mercedes delivered. The 2× on the aggregate podium was still correct: it returned 28 on a day only one leg hit.