1. Predict the podium — Oscar Piastri · Lando Norris · Lewis Hamilton — 2× MULTIPLIER
2. Sprint: highest finisher (Lindblad vs Bearman)? — Oliver Bearman
3. How many teams score points in the Sprint? — 6
4. Pole position — George Russell
5. Will both Williams cars get out of Q1? — No
6. Fastest lap of the race — Max Verstappen
7. Fastest pitstop (team) — Red Bull Racing
8. Safety Car or VSC in the first 10 laps? — No
9. How many British drivers score points in the Grand Prix? — 4
10. Will a British driver win the Grand Prix? — No

Notes

2× multiplier — Q1 (Podium): The multiplier goes on the podium because it is the only question that aggregates three independent picks, giving it by far the highest single-question EV (~16.5) versus the best binary (Q8 ≈ 9.0, Q10 ≈ 8.3). Doubling the highest-EV question maximises expected added points; the trade-off is variance (R08 showed the podium can score on just one leg). (The request left the 2× target unset, so it was chosen on EV grounds — flag if a specific question was intended.)

• Q1 — Podium (Piastri 15 · Norris 14 · Hamilton 12): EV per driver, not raw probability. Silverstone is historically a McLaren-strong circuit and Piastri beat both Ferraris, a Red Bull and Norris at Austria — Piastri 15 × ~0.42 = 6.3, Norris 14 × ~0.42 = 5.9 (home race, in-form car). Hamilton 12 × ~0.38 = 4.6 on his home-race uplift (record 9 Silverstone wins) and Ferrari’s better pace in cooler conditions. Both Mercedes are deliberately excluded on payout: Russell (5) and Antonelli (8) are the most likely podium-getters but their EV (2.5–4.4) trails the higher-paying McLaren/Ferrari picks. The known risk — a Mercedes 1-2 leaves us on one leg, exactly the R08 failure mode — is accepted because the brief is EV, not variance.
• Q2 — Sprint highest (Bearman, 20): A two-driver prop. Racing Bulls has been quicker than Haas (Lindblad ahead at Austria and Barcelona), so Lindblad is the favourite — but the break-even for Bearman at 20 vs Lindblad at 10 is just 33%. Bearman beats Lindblad far more than a third of the time on single-session sprint variance and his one-lap pace, so Bearman 20 × ~0.38 = 7.6 clears Lindblad 10 × ~0.62 = 6.2. Take the payout.
• Q3 — Teams scoring in the Sprint (6, 20): Sprint points reach P8. The big four (Mercedes, McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull) rarely lock out all eight spots, so 5–6 distinct teams is the modal band; 6 × ~0.30 = 6.0 beats 5 (10 × 0.30 = 3.0) and 7 (30 × 0.15 = 4.5) on the higher payout at similar probability.
• Q4 — Pole (Russell, 10): Current qualifying order runs Mercedes/Ferrari ahead of McLaren — at Austria Russell took pole with McLaren only P6/P7. Russell 10 × ~0.28 = 2.8 edges Piastri (20 × 0.11 = 2.2) and Antonelli (10 × 0.24 = 2.4); no higher-payout pick has enough probability to overtake it. Norris/Piastri are the home-track upside if McLaren’s Saturday pace lifts.
• Q5 — Both Williams out of Q1 (No, 10): Williams is in poor form — both cars were eliminated in Q1 at Austria (P17/P18), behind Audi and Haas. Silverstone’s high speed suits the car and could flip it, but on current form No 10 × ~0.63 = 6.3 beats Yes 15 × 0.37 = 5.6. Closest binary on the sheet.
• Q6 — Fastest lap (Verstappen, 12): A high-variance market. Front-runners often manage to the flag rather than pit late for a soft-tyre FL, so the play is a car likely to make a strategic late stop with pace — Red Bull’s pattern, now with the Austria upgrade. Verstappen 12 × ~0.18 = 2.16 ties the McLaren/Mercedes options on EV but diversifies away from the heavy McLaren exposure in Q1.
• Q7 — Fastest pitstop (Red Bull Racing, 25): The market prices Mercedes (10) and Ferrari (12) as favourites, but fastest pitstop is near-random and Red Bull’s crew is the historical benchmark (world-record holders). At 25 pts they are badly underpriced: Red Bull 25 × ~0.20 = 5.0 is the standout value, well clear of Mercedes (10 × 0.16 = 1.6) and McLaren (20 × 0.18 = 3.6).
• Q8 — SC/VSC in the first 10 laps (No, 15): Elevated 2026 attrition and Silverstone’s fast opening sequence raise incident risk, but the window is only the first 10 laps. No 15 × ~0.60 = 9.0 beats Yes 10 × 0.40 = 4.0; Yes needs >60% to win — an early-window SC/VSC doesn’t reach it.
• Q9 — British point-scorers (4, 15): The value call of the sheet. There are five British drivers — Russell, Hamilton, Norris (near-certain scorers) plus Bearman (Haas) and Lindblad (Racing Bulls), the latter easy to miss. With the big three very likely to score and exactly one of the two British midfielders typically joining them, exactly 4 is the modal outcome: 15 × ~0.35 = 5.2, beating the naive favourite “3” (10 × 0.28 = 2.8) and “5” (25 × 0.11 = 2.7). Do not default to 3.
• Q10 — British GP winner (No, 15): The home crowd has three live British contenders — Russell (Austria winner, fastest car), Norris and Hamilton — but combined that’s still only ~0.48 for a British win against Antonelli (leader/fastest car), Verstappen (upgrade) and Piastri. No 15 × ~0.52 = 7.8 beats Yes 10 × 0.48 = 4.8; a British win would need >60% to flip it.