1. Predict the podium — Norris P1 · Piastri P2 · Hamilton P3
2. How many teams score points in the Sprint? — 6
3. In the Sprint, which driver finishes highest? — Sainz
4. Which driver takes pole position? — Antonelli
5. Will both Racing Bulls cars get out of Q1? — No
6. Which team will set the fastest pitstop time of the race? — Ferrari
7. Who finishes ahead in the Grand Prix? — Ocon
8. How many times will the Safety Car or VSC be required during the Grand Prix? — 1
9. Who will set the fastest lap time of the race? — Antonelli
10. Who’s ahead in the Teams’ Championship after the Canadian Grand Prix? — McLaren

Notes

• Q1 — Podium (Norris P1 · Piastri P2 · Hamilton P3): Antonelli is the most probable podium finisher (~40%) but earns only 5 pts if he hits it — the worst EV on the sheet (2.00). Deliberately excluded. The three picks: Piastri (14 pts × ~24% = EV 3.36), Hamilton (18 pts × ~18% = EV 3.24), Norris (10 pts × ~27% = EV 2.70). Russell (EV 2.56) was the alternative for the third slot, but Norris edges him — McLaren’s sprint winner last round, Canada’s wall-to-wall layout suits aggressive driving and the Norris vs Russell gap at Miami was real. Hamilton at 18 pts is the key high-value pick: 7 Canadian GP wins, deep familiarity with Circuit Gilles Villeneuve, and this is his first Canadian race with Ferrari — a highly motivated weekend. Mercedes upgrade incoming for Canada, so Russell is also a legitimate threat, but the pts value doesn’t justify taking him over Hamilton or Norris.

• Q2 — Teams scoring sprint points: 6 (15 pts): Four teams are near-certain sprint scorers: Mercedes (Antonelli), McLaren (Norris/Piastri), Ferrari (Leclerc/Hamilton), Red Bull (Verstappen). The battle is for the 5th, 6th, and 7th slots. Alpine (Gasly P8 sprint pts at Miami, Colapinto P10), Williams (Sainz post-upgrade), Haas (Bearman consistent) all have ~35–40% individual probability of landing a driver in the sprint points. P(exactly 2 of 3 score) ≈ 38% → 6 teams is the highest EV outcome (5.70 vs 5: EV 3.00, 7: EV 4.00, 8: EV 2.10). Note: 5 teams scored at Miami (McLaren, Ferrari, Mercedes, Red Bull, Alpine) — Canada’s slightly more open midfield dynamics push the expectation one team higher.

• Q3 — Sprint highest finisher: Sainz (15 pts) — 2× MULTIPLIER: Head-to-head between Sainz (Williams) and Colapinto (Alpine). At Miami, Colapinto started P8 in sprint qualifying and Sainz P14 — Colapinto finished ahead (P10 vs P13). However, Canada changes the calculus: Williams has confirmed their upgrade package is working (double-points at Miami, more parts for Canada), and Montreal has always been a strong Williams circuit with its long pit straight and heavy braking zones. Probability Sainz finishes higher: ~55–60%. EV Sainz without 2×: 0.58 × 15 = 8.70. EV Colapinto: 0.42 × 10 = 4.20. Sainz is the clear pick even before the multiplier. With the 2× applied: Sainz = 30 pts → EV 0.58 × 30 = 17.40 — the highest EV available on the sheet and the correct multiplier target. No other question exceeds 9 EV without the 2× applied. Colapinto’s sprint qualifying edge at Miami doesn’t override Sainz’s circuit-specific advantage and Williams’ trajectory.

• Q4 — Pole position: Antonelli (10 pts): Four poles from four qualifying sessions. Mercedes are bringing their major Canada upgrade (deliberately held back from Miami). Even at just 10 pts — the joint-lowest payout for a pole pick — the probability (~38–42%) gives EV ≈ 4.00, which remains comfortably ahead of the next alternatives: Hamilton (20 pts × ~8% = 1.60), Leclerc (18 pts × ~5% = 0.90), Norris (15 pts × ~15% = 2.25). Hamilton’s historical Canada pole record (6 poles) is notable but his Ferrari has shown pace problems in quali trim. The Mercedes advantage in single-lap performance has been the most consistent feature of the 2026 season.

• Q5 — Both Racing Bulls out of Q1: No (15 pts): Lawson is a reliable qualifier (~85% to make Q2), but Lindblad is not — estimated ~55–60% to survive Q1 based on his 2026 form (Q2 elimination at Miami, DNS sprint). Joint probability both advance: 0.85 × 0.58 ≈ 0.49. EV No: 0.51 × 15 = 7.35 vs Yes: 0.49 × 10 = 4.90. The question turns on Lindblad, not Lawson. Montreal is a medium-difficulty qualifying circuit but the midfield is tight enough that one Racing Bulls car exiting in Q1 is the more probable combined outcome. Note: this echoes our successful R04 call on Williams (we predicted both would make Q2; they did — Q5 was wrong there, but Racing Bulls’ Q1 consistency is lower than Williams’).

• Q6 — Fastest pitstop: Ferrari (10 pts): Ferrari’s pit crew has been the most consistently fast in the 2026 season. Estimated probability ~35%. EV: 0.35 × 10 = 3.50, ahead of McLaren (0.15 × 20 = 3.00) and Mercedes (0.12 × 25 = 3.00). McLaren’s 2.8-second Miami stop (vs Mercedes’ 2.2s) specifically argues against them for fastest pitstop honours. Red Bull (12 pts × ~20% = 2.40) is a credible option but we’ve backed them wrong twice; Ferrari at 35% remains the baseline favourite. The 10-pt low payout reflects the game pricing Ferrari as the co-favourite, but the EV still leads.

• Q7 — Highest finisher in Grand Prix: Ocon (15 pts): Among Bearman, Ocon, Bortoleto, Hülkenberg — this is effectively Haas vs Audi. Audi has been disqualified, DNF’d, and DNS’d across the sprint and race in Miami; Hülkenberg is at -32 season pts. Bortoleto is slightly more reliable but still very low probability of outpacing the Haas pair. Bearman vs Ocon: Miami had Bearman P11 and Ocon P13. Japan had Bearman DNF (-14) and Ocon P10. In the season: Ocon 56 pts vs Bearman 46 pts — Ocon has the better consistency record. EV Ocon: 0.45 × 15 = 6.75 vs Bearman: 0.45 × 10 = 4.50 (remaining ~10% split between Bortoleto and Hülkenberg). We own Ocon in the fantasy team — this aligns, but the pick is correct on EV grounds independently.

• Q8 — Safety Cars in the race: 1 (20 pts): Circuit Gilles Villeneuve is one of the highest-SC-frequency circuits on the calendar — the Wall of Champions at the final chicane has eliminated title contenders across decades. Montreal typically produces 1–2 SCs per race. Estimated probability distribution: 0 SCs (5%), 1 SC (30%), 2 SCs (40%), >2 SCs (25%). EV: 0 = 1.50, 1 = 6.00, 2 = 5.70, >2 = 2.50. The 1 SC pick narrowly leads despite 2 SCs being the modal outcome, because the 20-pt payout vs 15 pt payout means the breakeven probability for 1 SC is 15/(20+15) = 43% — below the 40% combined probability of 2+SCs scenarios. Backing 1 SC is the correct narrow EV call.

• Q9 — Fastest lap: Antonelli (10 pts): Three fastest laps from the first three races, broken by Norris at Miami. The underlying driver is probability — Antonelli at ~30% fastest-lap probability × 10 pts = EV 3.00, ahead of Norris (0.18 × 12 = 2.16), Hamilton (0.08 × 20 = 1.60), Verstappen (0.07 × 15 = 1.05). Mercedes’ Canada upgrade should maintain or extend their race-pace advantage, and fastest lap typically goes to the race leader or someone making a strategic push on fresh rubber. The 10-pt low payout is correct here — the game is right to price Antonelli cheaply, but even at 10 pts his probability dominates.

• Q10 — Teams’ Championship leader after R05: McLaren (20 pts): Ferrari leads McLaren 110–94 (16-pt gap) entering Canada. For McLaren to overtake: they need to outscore Ferrari by 17+ points in one round. In a sprint weekend with Canada’s high-SC and variable race conditions, this is achievable — McLaren’s sprint form (Miami sprint 1-2) and their stronger Canada-specific pace make a significant net swing plausible. Ferrari’s upgrade was “disappointing” per Karun Chandhok and Sky Sports analysts; Canada doesn’t suit Ferrari’s front-wing profile in the same way as power-sensitive circuits. P(McLaren overtakes) ≈ 40%. EV McLaren: 0.40 × 20 = 8.00 vs Ferrari: 0.60 × 10 = 6.00. McLaren is the better pick despite being the underdog — the combination of high payout and genuine probability makes this the right aggressive call.